Session 5 - Advanced Probability & Statistics

A brisk refresher of undergraduate probability and statistics, with a glimpse of how they feed into modelling.

Topics covered

Random variables and the core distributions
Expectation, variance, and their rules
The Normal distribution, the law of large numbers, and the central limit theorem
Estimation, the standard error, and confidence intervals
Hypothesis testing (p-values, Type I and II errors, power)
Bayes’ theorem and the base-rate effect
A glimpse of modelling: the pipeline, and MLE versus MAP