Session 1 - Probability I

The language of uncertainty: how to describe chance and update beliefs from evidence.

Topics covered

Sample spaces, events, and the basic rules of probability
Conditional probability and independence
Bayes’ theorem and the base-rate fallacy
Random variables (pmf, pdf, cdf)
Key distributions: Bernoulli, Binomial, Poisson, and the Gaussian

Materials

📊 Slides
✏️ Exercise sheet
✅ Solutions